What trends will the future beer industry present in the new normal? China is the largest beer consumption market in the world. Recently, the development of imported beer has been developing rapidly and has attracted wide attention both in and outside the industry. How to analyze this phenomenon objectively?
The industry changes from quantitative to qualitative
In 2014, the negative growth of beer sales in China ended the growth of the beer industry in China for more than 20 years. In 2015, China's beer market has witnessed negative growth for the second year in a row, which is the biggest decline. What is the cause of market changes?
Zhao yu deputy secretary-general of liquor circulation association of China
Zhao yu: the change of macroeconomic environment directly affects the sales of consumer products, not only beer, liquor, etc., but also the growth rate of other liquors such as liquor is declining. Although the overall yield of beer has been negative, the structure of the product is changing, the output of low-end products is decreasing, and middle and high-end beer is entering the rising channel. In addition, in the past 10 years, 20 years, the beer industry through consolidation, has been in continuous growth, when capital with industry integration is bound to appear a new round of adjustment, industry decline is the expression of adjustment.
Fang gang is an expert in beer industry
Fang gang: in terms of data, beer production fell 0.9 percent in 2014 and 4.6 percent in 2015, after 24 consecutive years of growth in the country's beer industry. In 1949, there were only 7,000 tons of beer in China, but now we have 47 million tons of beer, which is normal after a long period of continuous growth. I don't think the beer industry has the conditions for a big adjustment. We also see a 4.1 percent increase in beer sales in August 2016, ending a 20-month decline, and again in September, indicating that the adjustment period is coming to an end. In addition, while beer sales have declined, sales have increased. In terms of product structure, high-end products are growing, while the lower-end of the base is declining, suggesting that the domestic beer industry is moving from quantitative to qualitative.
Li guangdou brand marketing strategy expert
Li guangdou: as a kind of mass consumption, beer consumption is mainly concentrated in the blue-collar population, which belongs to group consumption. Worldwide, the volatility of beer sales must be accompanied by economic phenomena. The main reason behind the decline in beer sales is the weak manufacturing sector, with fewer blue-collar workers. A beer index can be summed up. When the economy is depressed, sales of low-end beer are falling. As the economy picks up, sales of low-end beer have picked up. When the U.S. auto industry declined, beer sales fell sharply. When the Olympics or major football events are held, beer sales bounce back. Whole Kentucky is a mid-range beer in beer consumption, mass consumer groups more sensitive to the price of beer, and business people, middle class is not sensitive to the price of beer, they need is a special flavor of niche brand, it also brings high-end beer market space.
We will expand the trend of effective supply
From 2010 to 2015, the total number of imported beer increased by more than 50% over five years, according to data. Why is imported beer growing so fast? Is this rapid growth a threat to domestic brands?
Fang gang: actually, not only beer industry, imported red wine, imported food and so on in recent years have experienced blowout growth. In 2011, imported beer was only 670, 000 tons, and its base was small, and the larger increase was not surprising. By 2015, the total amount of imported beer accounted for less than 1.2% of the industry. Growth in imported beer has slowed to 17 per cent.
We found that most of the imported beer came from Europe, most of which was ale, while the domestic mainstream beer was mostly lager. Imported beer has the characteristics of high price, high alcohol content and high malt concentration, while domestic beer has a mild taste. As the economy improves, when consumers need some individualized, characteristic beer, domestic beer companies are undersupplied, creating a gap. In addition, consumers purchase channels have also changed, mainly through before dining, business super, now it can be purchased through online shopping, cross-border electricity, the two sides work together to promote the growth of imported beer.
Yang yingjie: the economic development of our country now, the industrial structure is moving from the low-end to the high-end. With the improvement of people's living standard, the sales volume of Kentucky is falling, which is not terrible. What is terrible is that the high-end products have not kept up with the consumer preference for consumption. If you can't keep up with this demand, foreign products will definitely come in. This gives the industry a challenge, how to open the middle and high-end products, and how to keep the supply? This is also the central emphasis on supply-side structural reform.
Zhao yu: wine is a commodity that is more spiritual than material, and more at the level of pleasure. Good and bad, can not be judged by the lack of light and mellow, this is a consumer hobby problem. Like China's baijiu, many consumers like the luzhou-flavor, and some people like the flavor. From the point of drinking culture, European consumers like to five friends drink slowly, and the Chinese like drinking beer group, like fast drink, so mainstream beer malt concentration and alcohol content is relatively low. In fact, we are now the food safety standards is more and more strict, beer is a global technological level technology is quite an industry, not too big, the essential difference between just in terms of individuation, we are relatively backward.
The beer also has an issue of freshness, the customs policy, the tax, the logistics policy and other factors, will affect the quantity of imported beer in the Chinese market development. In my opinion, future imported beer will not become a popular consumer product in the mainstream market, and the total amount of beer consumption will not exceed 10%. Imported beer in beer industry in China has played a great role in promoting, now the whole beer industry are also actively adjust the product structure, such as Qingdao beer of the ancient and the pearl river beer, Snow White makeup series, also more popular in the market. Of course, to make the high-end products of domestic beer to be accepted and loved by the wider consumers, there is still a process to guide consumption